There are three scenarios that you need to plan for: No Deal, Hard Brexit and Soft Brexit. Here’s what they mean for your business:
No Deal: No Standardsation or regulatory framework and no free movement of labour, goods, services and capital, no trade agreements, no transition period.
Hard Brexit: Restrictions on movement of labour, goods, services and capital, divergence on standardisation and regulatory framework, transition period.
Soft Brexit: Flexibility on free movement of labour, goods, services and capital, and restrictions on standardisation and regulatory framework, transition period.
When developing your scenario response plans, these are the six things to consider:
- Coherent Brexit strategy: A strategy needs to be developed that encompasses the probable scenarios and has contingency plans for critical trigger events (ie regulatory, legislation or trade deal changes). This strategy needs to align with all inflight and future programmes so that organisations can avoid any threats to themselves or capitalise on any opportunities. To achieve this, business analysis and programme delivery teams need to be forceful and robust to ensure that you can identify issues and ensure good returns on investments
- Advisory team on Brexit with the authority to act: Your organisation needs to work through the Brexit scenarios to see the potential impact on your business and become clear on where you need to strengthen. Once you’ve listed down the different scenarios, build a Plan capturing all the scenarios and actions. This plan may change as the UK negotiates with the EU. Hence, an agile approach to this plan is very important. You need to build a team within your organisation that has advisory knowledge on Brexit
- Business model: Will the Post-Brexit changes affect the way the current Business Model adds value to the Organisation? If the answer is Yes, then an assessment must be carried out to see what areas in the current Business model need change. List down the existing clients, businesses and suppliers in the EU as well as any Subsidiaries and Counter parties that these businesses have. This would give you an idea of which entities may change and thus will help you build a new Business Model that focuses on the long-term strategy
- Operating model: You will again need to complete an assessment of your current operating model. A few helpful questions are: Will you be required to buy any new resources and build new capabilities? Based on the changes to the Jurisdictions, do we have to move specific entities to align with the new Jurisdictions? These new models based on the response to these questions and others will help your organisation react faster to the challenges posed by Brexit
- Financial model: Based on the revised Operating and Business models, it is very important that you capture possible ways to analyse capital, project funding, etc.
- PMOs and Project Managers: Projects and programmes need to be reviewed and have impact assessments completed to identify the potential risks of Brexit, and to assess their continued viability. These reviews need to go beyond internal assessments and must include implications for customers, suppliers and partner
Brexit is fast approaching, especially if you consider the increasing likelihood of a no deal scenario with no transition period. Even with the transition periods companies may be expected to comply/trade with multiple markets and regulatory frameworks right away. Your organisation needs to set achievable timelines for your Brexit strategy, so you need to start right away.
In a nut shell
Brexit is surrounded by so much hearsay, conjecture, and political instability that it is impossible to know what the business climate will be in 5 years’ time. However, organisations need to be aware that all these uncertainties present opportunities as well as risks. At such a crucial time in the country’s formation of its socioeconomic and political make up, being on the front foot is essential to an organisations’ future. To do this, an organisations’ approach to transformational change needs to be robust and active allowing it to mitigate any risks and capitalise on any opportunities.
To find out more about our Brexit Solution and how we can help your business prepare for all outcomes, email Anthony O’ Hara or call +44 (0) 20 7099 0803 today.